Expectations for Eastern Europe

An Interview with Former Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki

Mateusz Morawiecki is a Polish economist, historian, and former banker. A member of the Law and Justice Party, he served as Prime Minister of Poland between 2017 and 2023.

SALIENT: How do you see the relationship between Poland and its eastern neighbors, particularly Ukraine and Belarus, evolving in light of current tensions, and potentially, reaching a resolution?

MORAWIECKI: There is a huge difference between Ukraine and Belarus, because Belarus has been dominated by Russia almost completely. We would wish to have a friendly and peaceful Belarus behind our eastern border, but the situation is quite different. The Russians essentially control Belarus, whereas Ukraine is fighting for its sovereignty—for its real sovereignty. This is why Poland—and my government—was so involved in supporting Ukraine. There are actively brave Ukrainians fighting against brutal Russian aggression and they are weakening Russia through this resistance, through this fight. A weaker Russia is in the interest of the United States and Poland. If Russia won in Ukraine, this would mean not only Russian soldiers quite close to the Polish border, but also that Russia could free up resources and lend more support to China.

SALIENT: Do you believe that Poland's future strategic alliances will depend more on its relationships within the European Union, NATO, UN reform, or do you think that there's room for a different approach? There's been mention in Poland about UN reforms, for example.

MORAWIECKI: I don't believe that UN reforms are realistic or will lead to any positive solution. I just think that this organization is not ineffective. I'm a strong believer in transatlantic cooperation. I believe that the United States needs Europe, and Europe needs the U.S. Poland is probably the only European country which is as pro-European as it is pro-American, and we could be a kind of keystone between the U.S. and Europe…

The European Union requires huge reforms because it invested too much in the environmental policies, and through this, it has contributed to a lot of carbon leakage, a lot of industries fleeing away from Europe to China, to India or elsewhere—and we have to change that. Speaking about NATO, I think that President Trump is absolutely right in requiring all the NATO member states to do their part in enhancing the defense capabilities of the entire Alliance. It cannot rely exclusively on the power of the United States. All the other NATO partners have to do their part as well.

SALIENT: What is your assessment of the Biden administration's approach versus the new Trump's administration to Eastern Europe?

MORAWIECKI: The first part of my reply will probably go against some of the suggestions hidden between the lines of your question. I do see some continuity between the Biden administration and the first Trump administration. For example, Trump imposed tariffs on China and many restrictions on technology transfer that Biden had actually continued in the form of three major legislative initiatives like the American Jobs and Innovation and Jobs Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the CHIPS and Science Act. Those three acts were very protectionist.

I think that President Trump is going to be clear about his expectations for his partners in terms of trade. If the tariffs on American goods are higher in Europe than the tariffs on European goods in the United States, President Trump has the right to require a more level playing field between America and the European Union. I also believe that the efforts of the NATO member states—which are at the same time the member states of the European Union—should be taken into account by the Trump administration. By this, I mean that Poland, for instance, is doing its part in defense. We are dedicating the highest percentage of defense amongst all the member states of NATO. We should not be treated the same by the United States as Germany, which dedicates only 1.5% on defense for us.

SALIENT: The fight for social conservatism in the US has more or less been an uphill battle for decades, and even with President Trump's new administration, which might be viewed as an endorsement of this anti-woke, more socially conservative inclination, I would say that there are more people who voted for Trump just for economic reasons. To what do you attribute the success of social conservatism in Poland or in Eastern Europe more broadly?

MORAWIECKI: Well, that's a very interesting observation because, to some extent, I do see similarities between this Marxist-Leninist-Soviet type of ideology and Wokeism—or extreme liberal thinking—which is well spread across Europe. So yes, there is this connectivity between the two sets of ideas—or, anti-ideas. Having said that, there is also one weakness in post-Communist countries. Not unlike Soviet propaganda in the past, disinformation and manipulation by the Russians is still a very pervasive phenomenon embedded in our political culture, in our social culture. Another aspect which is important in Poland is Catholicism. Another factor is a kind of “common sense” approach—the Revolution of Common Sense—which started in Poland a couple of years ago when the woke ideology entered our culture. This is why I think that President Trump was right in indicating that there are the two genders—man and woman— and that he does not want men in women's sports. Unfortunately, transgender ideology is widespread across Europe, and is popular amongst adolescents. Poland doesn’t have it, and Poland doesn't want it.

SALIENT: In America, there's a lot of weight placed on the idea that culture wars are a distraction from “real policy” like the economy or defense. How do you strike this balance?

MORAWIECKI: I think that is a good observation. In the era of war in Ukraine and increasing tensions all around us, and with China growing as a superpower, many people do have this thought in the back of their mind. “Let's not deal with this ideological stuff, because there is a bigger fish to fry. There are bigger issues to deal with—security, the Middle East, Ukraine, Russia, a poor middle class…” In Poland, because of its geography, people are beginning to understand that these are existential issues much more important than social matters.